In this Aug. 14, 1976, file photo Harry Dent, left, President Gerald Ford's southern strategist, checks newspaper on the podium of Kemper Arena with James A. Baker III of the President Ford Committee in Kansas City. (AP Photo/File)

The increasingly contentious Republican presidential scrum isnt without precedent, says a Texan who was up close and personal with two of the closest presidential elections recent American history.

James A. Baker III, former secretary of both Treasury and State, suggested that todays campaign dynamic closely resembles the Republican race in 1976. I see some extraordinary similarities to whats happening in this campaign and what happened . . . between Ford and Reagan in 1976, said the man who worked as a delegate counter for Ford in his race for the Republican nomination against then-California Gov. Ronald Reagan.

Ford, of course, lost to Jimmy Carter in the general election by less than 10,000 votes. Baker said he assumed it was the closest presidential election he would ever experience in his lifetime. It wasnt.

Back to 76: The only major difference is, then you had an incumbent Republican president in Ford; here you have a guy whos been around the track before. . . . Going around the track before in the primary process gives you a huge advantage. You have people and organizations in every state. You have fundraisers; theyve all invested before in your candidacy and it gives you a big leg up.

In my view, Romney will be the nominee, but Im not going to be at all surprised to see this thing being slugged out until well after Super Tuesday. Im not sure that it will go all the way to the convention the way the Ford-Reagan race did and be decided by only a hundred delegate votes out of 3,000, but it has all the earmarks of going all the way. Youve got the alleged conservative-moderate split, and youve got the geographical differences that that tends to promote the way you had in Ford-Reagan. Ford won all of the Northeast, much of the Midwest where he was from; Reagan, of course, took the West and the South. A lot of that is extant today in this race.

Mitt Romney campaigns in Dallas (AP photo)

Baker said he believes that Romney is the best candidate the GOP could nominate, because he can appeal to the independent voters in the swing states. Thats where you win general elections.

Romney, he said, has a shot in November. The economy will be the determining factor, and really not so much what it actually does but what its looking like its doing.

Baker on the issues:

Tax reform: I happen to think that regardless of what happens in November were going to see some kind of tax reform in the next presidents term, whoever that president is. The American people are almost going to demand it. The code is an abomination. . . . There are a lot of reasons for it that could bring the parties together, but not before the election.

The debt: You cant be strong politically, diplomatically or militarily if youre not strong economically. . . . We still have a fundamentally good economy we represent 25 percent of the worlds total GDP but we gotta figure out what were going to do about this debt problem. And its not just a case of cutting spending; youve got to do both. Youve got to raise revenues by increasing growth. . . . Theres nothing wrong with revenue increases by way of taxes, provided you have spending restraints in place.

Foreign intervention: Now, people are jumping up and down on CNN and elsewhere, saying you gotta go into Syria. Well what the and kick off what could really become a regional war? If Syria goes and Im not suggesting that Assad shouldnt go; he should but when that government shuts down, you better know whats going to take its place, or youre likely to have a regional conflict between Shia and Sunni thatll make the stuff thats going on there now seem like nothing.

Iran: The Israeli govenment came to the George W. Bush administration and they asked for three things. They asked for bunker-busting bombs, overflight rights and in-flight refueling capabilities, so they could hit Iran, and the Bush administration said, No, thats not in the national interest of the United States; were not going to give you that. Then they came to the Obama administration and asked for the same thing, and the Obama administration said, No, thats not in the national interest of the United States, and were not going to give you that. I think that the policy that the current administration is following to try and deal with this problem is the right policy: ratcheting up the sanctions against Iran . . . and then to do covert action in there to do what you can to denigrate their nuclear-development activities. . . . Were too quick to say, either a military strike or nothing.

Political dysfunction: The most egregious problem is redistricting. The Constitution provides for redistricting every 10 years, and the legislatures of the various states get together, and if theyre dominated by Republicans they carve up a lot of great Republican districts; if theyre dominated by Democrats, theyre Democratic districts. And so it puts a premium on being a fringe-y. All of the main political races in our country today take place in the primaries, not the general election. The center has disappeared.

Everybody thinks Ronald Reagan was a hardline conservative; he was a principled pragmatist. He knew when to cut a deal; he knew when to hold em and when to throw em. . . . . Reagan and Tip ONeil would fight like hell during the day, and in the evening theyd get together and tell dirty Irish jokes and drink whiskey. But you need to do something about redistricting, and thats hard, because thats constitutional.